The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Downtrend Resistance
Downtrend Resistance stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Downtrend Resistance stock alert indicates that price is near long-term resistance trendline and probability of short-term trend reversal is high.

The strategy is based on selling long (or taking short) position on downtrend testing resistance. The strategy has low to medium risk and average reword.

Downtrend Resistance

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- 7/3/2025 -
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SPDR Retail (XRT) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtLane's Stochastic bearish divergenceTrend resistance at 83.08
Daily :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtBearish Deliberation CandlestickDaily  MACD line has moved above its signal lineThe price is above the upper Bollinger Band
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It was a third consecutive positive week for the SPDR Retail (XRT). During the week, the XRT gained 3.28 points, or 4.24%, and closed at 80.63 on Thursday, July 3, 2025. It was the best weekly gain since May 16, 2025. Weekly volume was 18% above average.

Long-term trend: [See XRT long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on September 30, 2022 at 55.33 and reached 84.84 on November 25, 2024. XRT gained -29.51 points, or -53.33%, in 112 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 58.92 and resistance is at 87.80. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See XRT medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on November 25, 2024 at 84.84 and reached 61.33 on April 8, 2025. XRT lost 23.51 points, or 27.71%, in 19 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Right-Angled, Descending Wedge chart pattern. The price is near the trend resistance line (83.08). The resistance is usually stronger when technical indicators are overbought. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with price testing the trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XRT weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Weekly Lane's Stochastic has bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly Lane's Stochastic bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since May 16, 2025. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XRT short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on June 13, 2025 at 75.02 and reached 80.77 on July 3, 2025. XRT gained -5.75 points, or -7.66%, in 20 days. Price is near the trend high.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XRT daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved above its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

The price has closed on Friday above the upper Bollinger Band. It is considered a bullish signal. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Candlestick pattern: [See XRT candlestick chart pattern]
On Friday the chart has formed a Bearish Deliberation Candlestick pattern. This pattern occurs in an uptrend;it appears after a sustained upward move and suggests that the rally is losing strength and a reversal is possible. The reliability of the Bearish Deliberation pattern is medium. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks that had a Bearish Deliberation Candlestick pattern during the last week.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 65.99
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 8.00
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 84.00
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 80.66
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.94
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70.61
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 2.40
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 88.96
Overbought Bearish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 83.79
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.72
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 87.80
Monthly Trendline Resistance 83.08
Price 80.63
Upper Bollinger Band 80.11
Daily Stochastic Crossing 80.08
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 79.42
20 Day Moving Average 77.64
Parabolic System 77.54
50 Day Moving Average 74.85
Lower Bollinger Band 74.80
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 75.02
Low Date 06/13/2025
High 80.77
High Date 07/03/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 61.33
Low Date 04/08/2025
High 80.77
High Date 07/03/2025
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Broadening Right-Angled, Descending Wedge
Status Test Resistance
Resistance 83.08
Support 47.55
High 84.84
High Date 11/25/2024
Low 61.33
Low Date 04/08/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 87.80
Support 58.92
Low 55.33
Low Date 09/30/2022
High 84.84
High Date 11/25/2024
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 26.29
Low Date 03/23/2020
High 104.26
High Date 11/16/2021
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.