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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 9/19/2025 -
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Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought
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It was a third consecutive positive week for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY). During the week, the XLY gained 2.76 points, or 1.16%, and closed at 241.39 on Friday, September 19, 2025. Weekly volume was 46% above average.

Long-term trend: [See XLY long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on December 28, 2022 at 126.00 and reached 243.40 on September 17, 2025. XLY gained -117.40 points, or -93.17%, in 142 weeks. Price is near the trend high.

Medium-term trend: [See XLY medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 7, 2025 at 173.10 and reached 243.40 on September 17, 2025. XLY gained -70.30 points, or -40.61%, in 23 weeks. Price is near the trend high.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XLY weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with strongly overbought weekly overbought Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since May 23, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XLY short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on August 1, 2025 at 214.75 and reached 243.40 on September 17, 2025. XLY gained -28.65 points, or -13.34%, in 47 days. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 236.97 and resistance is at 242.55. A Rising Wage is a triangle formation with a noticeable slant to the upside. It represents the loss of an upside momentum on each successive high and has a bearish bias. The Rising wedge usually marks a reversal in an uptrend. In a downtrend a rising wedge is considered to be a continuation pattern. Use the following link to access a Rising Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Rising Wedge pattern in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XLY daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since September 10, 2025. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is getting stronger.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 71.06
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 10.10
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 83.52
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 81.48
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 3.43
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 78.48
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 3.20
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 91.09
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 84.01
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 5.07
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 243.18
Weekly Trendline Resistance 242.55
Daily Stochastic Crossing 241.55
Price 241.39
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 241.21
Weekly Trendline Support 236.97
Parabolic System 236.59
20 Day Moving Average 235.86
50 Day Moving Average 228.75
Lower Bollinger Band 228.38
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 240.48
Low Date 09/18/2025
High 242.47
High Date 09/19/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 242.55
Support 236.97
Low 214.75
Low Date 08/01/2025
High 243.40
High Date 09/17/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 173.10
Low Date 04/07/2025
High 243.40
High Date 09/17/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 126.00
Low Date 12/28/2022
High 243.40
High Date 09/17/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 15.85
Low Date 03/06/2009
High 243.40
High Date 09/17/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.