The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis
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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 1/16/2026 -
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Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF (VBR) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtLane's Stochastic and MACD bearish divergence
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overboughtStochastic has declined below the signal lineMACD bearish divergence
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It was a second consecutive positive week for the Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF (VBR). During the week, the VBR gained 2.98 points, or 1.34%, and closed at 225.04 on Friday, January 16, 2026. Weekly volume was 117% above average.

Long-term trend: [See VBR long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on September 27, 2022 at 142.53 and reached 226.09 on January 15, 2026. VBR gained -83.56 points, or -58.63%, in 172 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 165.61 and resistance is at 244.31. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See VBR medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 9, 2025 at 160.20 and reached 226.09 on January 15, 2026. VBR gained -65.89 points, or -41.13%, in 40 weeks. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 206.46 and resistance is at 231.96. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See VBR weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Weekly Lane's Stochastic and MACD have bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the Lane's Stochastic and MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly Lane's Stochastic and MACD bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since December 5, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low, but getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is getting stronger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See VBR short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on January 2, 2026 at 211.34 and reached 226.09 on January 15, 2026. VBR gained -14.75 points, or -6.98%, in 13 days. The price is now at the 7.12% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See VBR daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with strongly overbought daily overbought Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Daily MACD has bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily MACD bearish divergence.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since January 5, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is strong.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70.48
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 3.70
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 93.66
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 86.80
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 2.54 Bearish
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 79.25
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 2.00
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 86.63
Overbought Bearish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 81.23
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 3.89 Bearish
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Yearly Trendline Resistance 244.31
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 231.96
Monthly Trendline Resistance 231.57
Upper Bollinger Band 226.82
Daily Stochastic Crossing 225.52
Price 225.04
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 222.59
Parabolic System 220.07
20 Day Moving Average 218.03
Monthly Trendline Support 212.97
50 Day Moving Average 212.71
Lower Bollinger Band 210.76
Quarterly Trendline Support 206.46
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 211.34
Low Date 01/02/2026
High 226.09
High Date 01/15/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 211.34
Low Date 01/02/2026
High 226.09
High Date 01/15/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 231.57
Support 212.97
Low 198.76
Low Date 11/20/2025
High 226.09
High Date 01/15/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 231.96
Support 206.46
Low 160.20
Low Date 04/09/2025
High 226.09
High Date 01/15/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 244.31
Support 165.61
Low 142.53
Low Date 09/27/2022
High 226.09
High Date 01/15/2026
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.