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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 1/9/2026 -
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Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc (ULTA) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Overbought sectorLane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range are overboughtLane's Stochastic is strongly overboughtDaily  MACD line has moved above its signal lineThe price is above the upper Bollinger BandPrice is near the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level
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It was a third consecutive positive week for the Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc (ULTA). During the week, the ULTA gained 46.14 points, or 7.44%, and closed at 666.18 on Friday, January 9, 2026. Weekly volume was -18% below average.

ULTA is a member of Consumer Discretionary Sector. Consumer Discretionary is the second most overbought sector. Sector/industry rotation is considered a proven strategy to beat the market. Use the following links to find overbought/oversold technical indicators by Sector or by Industry.

Long-term trend: [See ULTA long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on March 14, 2024 at 574.76 and reached 309.00 on March 13, 2025. ULTA lost 265.76 points, or 46.24%, in 52 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (295.94) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, but since daily indicators are overbought a short-term pull back is possible. ULTA may retest the broken resistance line. It is considered to be a support line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See ULTA medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on November 19, 2025 at 493.00 and reached 675.65 on January 9, 2026. ULTA gained -182.65 points, or -37.05%, in 7 weeks. The price is now at the 5.18% retracement level.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See ULTA weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since December 5, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See ULTA short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on January 8, 2026 at 650.44 and reached 675.65 on January 9, 2026. ULTA gained -25.21 points, or -3.88%, in 1 days. Price is near the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. The Fibonacci retracement level is considered a support/resistance level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See ULTA daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range are overbought while Lane's Stochastic is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range or strongly overbought daily Lane's Stochastic. Use the following link to access Relative Strength Index help.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved above its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

The price has closed on Friday above the upper Bollinger Band. It is considered a bullish signal. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 85.58
Overbought
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 19.80
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 90.80
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 85.53
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 20.88
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 74.23
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 9.70
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 89.20
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 80.99
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 29.19
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Daily Stochastic Crossing 669.62
Price 666.18
Upper Bollinger Band 662.92
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 659.49
Parabolic System 642.60
20 Day Moving Average 614.16
Lower Bollinger Band 567.01
50 Day Moving Average 564.90
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Consumer Discretionary 8
Industry Specialty Stores 38
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 650.44
Low Date 01/08/2026
High 675.65
High Date 01/09/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 575.48
Low Date 12/08/2025
High 675.65
High Date 01/09/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 493.00
Low Date 11/19/2025
High 675.65
High Date 01/09/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 309.00
Low Date 03/13/2025
High 675.65
High Date 01/09/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 318.93
Support 295.94
High 574.76
High Date 03/14/2024
Low 309.00
Low Date 03/13/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.