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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 1/30/2026 -
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CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Broken uptrend resistance line - uptrend exhaustionWilliams' Percentage Range is overboughtLane's Stochastic is strongly overboughtStochastic has declined below the signal lineBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overboughtStochastic has declined below the signal lineA Parabolic SAR indicator is above and near the priceThe period of high volatility of the stock price
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It was a second positive week after 3 consecutive negative weeks for the CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA). During the week, the FXA gained 0.70 points, or 1.02%, and closed at 69.00 on Friday, January 30, 2026. Weekly volume was 318% above average.

Long-term trend: [See FXA long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on July 27, 2011 at 110.99 and reached 57.50 on March 18, 2020. FXA lost 53.49 points, or 48.19%, in 451 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (58.05) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, but since daily indicators are overbought a short-term pull back is possible. FXA may retest the broken resistance line. It is considered to be a support line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See FXA medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on November 21, 2025 at 63.66 and reached 70.15 on January 29, 2026. FXA gained -6.49 points, or -10.19%, in 9 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend resistance line (67.21) is broken, while daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought. Uptrend is exhausted and trend reversal is possible soon. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See FXA weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range is overbought while Lane's Stochastic is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range or strongly overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic. During the last week, weekly Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since December 5, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See FXA short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on January 9, 2026 at 66.00 and reached 70.15 on January 29, 2026. FXA gained -4.15 points, or -6.29%, in 20 days. The chart has formed a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 66.45 and resistance is at 70.45. A Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators. Use the following link to access a Broadening Ascending Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Broadening Ascending Wedge pattern in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See FXA daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the overbought signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since January 21, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is strong.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (68.34) comes close to the price (69.00). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods. Use the following links to access Parabolic SAR Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Parabolic SAR close to the price level.

The distance between the Bollinger Bands is 136.21% higher then one year average. It indicates the period of high volatility of the stock price. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 76.30
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 18.10
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 89.16
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 82.46
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.66
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 76.76
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 11.60
Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 91.29
Strong Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 81.42
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 0.46
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Weekly Trendline Resistance 70.45
Upper Bollinger Band 70.15
Daily Stochastic Crossing 69.78
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 69.71
Price 69.00
Parabolic System 68.34
20 Day Moving Average 67.30
Monthly Trendline Resistance 67.29
Monthly Trendline Support 67.21
Weekly Trendline Support 66.45
50 Day Moving Average 66.15
Lower Bollinger Band 65.06
Yearly Trendline Resistance 61.43
Yearly Trendline Support 58.05
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 70.15
High Date 01/29/2026
Low 68.78
Low Date 01/30/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Broadening Ascending Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 70.45
Support 66.45
Low 66.00
Low Date 01/09/2026
High 70.15
High Date 01/29/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 67.29
Support 67.21
Low 63.66
Low Date 11/21/2025
High 70.15
High Date 01/29/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 58.90
Low Date 04/07/2025
High 70.15
High Date 01/29/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 61.43
Support 58.05
High 110.99
High Date 07/27/2011
Low 57.50
Low Date 03/18/2020
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.