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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 4/2/2026 -
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Estee Lauder (EL) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldBroken trend support line
Daily :20 Day Moving Average has crossed below the 50 Day Moving AverageLane's Stochastic oversoldWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly oversoldStochastic has raised above the signal lineRelative Strength Index, Lane's Stochastic and MACD bullish divergenceThe period of high volatility of the stock price
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It was a first positive week after 5 consecutive negative weeks for the Estee Lauder (EL). During the week, the EL gained 1.89 points, or 2.81%, and closed at 69.12 on Thursday, April 2, 2026. It was the best weekly gain since February 20, 2026. Weekly volume was 65% above average.

Long-term trend: [See EL long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on January 3, 2022 at 374.20 and reached 48.37 on April 9, 2025. EL lost 325.83 points, or 87.07%, in 170 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. A Falling Wedge is a triangle formation with a noticeable slant to the downside. It represents the loss of a downside momentum on each successive low and has a bullish bias. The Falling wedge usually marks a reversal in a downtrend. In an uptrend a falling wedge is considered to be a continuation pattern. Use the following link to access a Falling Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Falling Wedge pattern in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See EL medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on April 9, 2025 at 48.37 and reached 121.64 on February 3, 2026. EL gained -73.27 points, or -151.48%, in 42 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The uptrend support line (108.35) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. EL may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See EL weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since February 27, 2026. The distance between MACD and the signal line is near its high and getting bigger. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See EL short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on March 10, 2026 at 96.36 and reached 66.22 on April 2, 2026. EL lost 30.14 points, or 31.28%, in 23 days. The chart has formed a Falling Channel chart pattern. The trend support level is at 62.27 and resistance is at 72.85. A Falling Channel represents price movement contained between parallel lower (support) and upper (resistance) trend lines. Trading Channeling stocks is one of the most reliable and accurate trading techniques that provide traders with precise entry and exit points as well as stop-losses and take-profit recommendations. Use the following link to access a Falling Channel chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Falling Channel pattern in a short-term trend.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See EL daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is oversold while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly oversold daily Williams' Percentage Range. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has rallied above the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bullish signal. Daily Relative Strength Index, Lane's Stochastic and MACD have bullish divergence. Use the following links to access the Relative Strength Index, Lane's Stochastic and MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily Relative Strength Index, Lane's Stochastic and MACD bullish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal. Use the following link to access Relative Strength Index help.

The daily MACD line is below its signal line since February 27, 2026. This is an indication that the short-term trend is down. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current short-term downtrend is getting weak.

The distance between the Bollinger Bands is 167.95% higher then one year average. It indicates the period of high volatility of the stock price. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

During the last week, the 20 Day Moving Average has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. The moving average crossover signals work better when the stock develops a strong trend, but they are ineffective when the stock is in a trading range. Moving average crossover systems can be effective, but should be used in conjunction with trend patterns, momentum indicators, candlesticks and other aspects of technical analysis. Use the following links to access Moving Average Crossover trading technique, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the Moving Average close to the price level.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 22.25
Bullish
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 93.10
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 11.14
Oversold Bullish
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 13.44
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -8.24 Bullish
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 29.44
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 96.20
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 11.76
Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 17.67
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 3.59
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 99.82
50 Day Moving Average 98.23
20 Day Moving Average 80.95
Parabolic System 75.51
Weekly Trendline Resistance 72.85
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 69.66
Price 69.12
Daily Stochastic Crossing 67.74
Weekly Trendline Support 62.27
Lower Bollinger Band 62.03
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Consumer Staples 7
Industry Personal Products 25
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
High 73.90
High Date 04/01/2026
Low 66.22
Low Date 04/02/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Channel
Status Valid
Resistance 72.85
Support 62.27
High 96.36
High Date 03/10/2026
Low 66.22
Low Date 04/02/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 121.64
High Date 02/03/2026
Low 66.22
Low Date 04/02/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Channel
Status Broken Support
Resistance 131.20
Support 108.35
Low 48.37
Low Date 04/09/2025
High 121.64
High Date 02/03/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status
Resistance
Support
High 374.20
High Date 01/03/2022
Low 48.37
Low Date 04/09/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.