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Downtrend exhaustion - Stock Market Timing Signals and trading strategies.

Downtrend exhaustion stock alert presents a stock market trading strategy based on combination of timing signals, technical indicators, trend analysis and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. It indicates that long term downtrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Downtrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for undervalued stocks. The strategy is based on taking long position on anticipation of downtrend reversal. Downtrend exhaustion timing strategy and stock trading system presents alerts for S&P 500 index members, ETFs and market indices. As S&P 500 trading system it shows excellent results for index timing also.

Downtrend Exhaustion

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- 10/16/2026 -
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Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are oversoldBroken trend support line
Daily :Daily  MACD line has moved below its signal lineThe price is below the lower Bollinger BandWilliams' Percentage Range oversoldLane's Stochastic is strongly oversold
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It was the negative week for the Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK). During the week, the ALK dropped -4.23 points, or -10.75%, and closed at 35.13 on Friday, October 16, 2026. It was the worst weekly loss since August 21, 2026. Weekly volume was -6% below average.

Long-term trend: [See ALK long-term trend chart]
A long-term uptrend had started on March 18, 2020 at 20.02 and reached 78.08 on February 19, 2025. ALK gained -58.06 points, or -290.01%, in 257 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The uptrend support line (39.46) is broken. Usually a broken support is considered to be a long-term bearish signal, but since daily indicators are oversold a short-term pull back is possible. ALK may retest the broken support line. It is considered to be a resistance line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend support in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See ALK medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term downtrend had started on February 19, 2025 at 78.08 and reached 33.03 on March 30, 2026. ALK lost 45.05 points, or 57.70%, in 57 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 30.05 and resistance is at 48.61. A Falling Wedge is a triangle formation with a noticeable slant to the downside. It represents the loss of a downside momentum on each successive low and has a bullish bias. The Falling wedge usually marks a reversal in a downtrend. In an uptrend a falling wedge is considered to be a continuation pattern. Use the following link to access a Falling Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Falling Wedge pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See ALK weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with weekly strongly oversold Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is below its signal line since August 21, 2026. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is down. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See ALK short-term trend chart]
A short-term downtrend had started on September 22, 2026 at 43.58 and reached 34.88 on October 16, 2026. ALK lost 8.70 points, or 19.96%, in 24 days. The chart has formed a Falling Channel chart pattern.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See ALK daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Williams' Percentage Range is oversold while Lane's Stochastic is strongly oversold. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with oversold daily Williams' Percentage Range or strongly oversold daily Lane's Stochastic.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved below its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal.

The price has closed on Friday below the lower Bollinger Band. It is considered a bearish signal. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands. Use the following links to access the Bollinger Bands Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with the price above the Upper Bollinger Band or below the Lower Bollinger Band.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 26.27
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 81.60
Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 7.95
Strong Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 17.54
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -1.06
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 24.31
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 91.80
Strong Oversold
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 7.83
Strong Oversold
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 19.21
Oversold
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -1.02
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 42.24
50 Day Moving Average 41.20
Yearly Trendline Support 39.46
20 Day Moving Average 39.13
Parabolic System 38.84
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 35.63
Daily Stochastic Crossing 35.36
Lower Bollinger Band 35.34
Price 35.13
Quarterly Trendline Support 30.05
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector Industrials 3
Industry Airlines 14
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Channel
High 43.58
High Date 09/22/2026
Low 34.88
Low Date 10/16/2026
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 53.62
High Date 08/05/2026
Low 34.88
Low Date 10/16/2026
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern DownTrend
Status
Resistance
Support
High 54.32
High Date 06/25/2026
Low 34.88
Low Date 10/16/2026
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 48.61
Support 30.05
High 78.08
High Date 02/19/2025
Low 33.03
Low Date 03/30/2026
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Broken Support
Resistance 79.72
Support 39.46
Low 20.02
Low Date 03/18/2020
High 78.08
High Date 02/19/2025
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.