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Uptrend Exhaustion

Uptrend Exhaustion stock alert presents a technical analysis stock market picking technique based on combination of technical indicators, stock trend analysis, trend following indicators and pattern recognition. Stock market alert is a warning signal. Uptrend Exhaustion alert indicates that long term uptrend is exhausted and probability of long term trend reversal is high. Uptrend exhaustion stock market alert presents relatively low to medium risk - high reword stock pick for overvalued stocks.

The strategy is based on selling (or taking a short) position on anticipation of uptrend reversal.

Uptrend Exhaustion

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- 10/24/2025 -
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Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) Technical Analysis

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Summary:
Weekly :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtBroken trend resistance line
Daily :Lane's Stochastic is overboughtWilliams' Percentage Range is strongly overboughtMACD bearish divergenceDaily  MACD line has moved above its signal line
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It was a second consecutive positive week for the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV). During the week, the XLV gained 2.76 points, or 1.93%, and closed at 146.03 on Friday, October 24, 2025. Weekly volume was -15% below average.

Long-term trend: [See XLV long-term trend chart]
A long-term downtrend had started on September 4, 2024 at 159.64 and reached 127.35 on May 15, 2025. XLV lost 32.29 points, or 20.23%, in 36 weeks. The chart has formed a Falling Channel chart pattern. The downtrend resistance line (118.40) is broken. Usually a broken resistance is considered to be a long-term bullish signal, but since daily indicators are overbought a short-term pull back is possible. XLV may retest the broken resistance line. It is considered to be a support line now. Use the following links to access Trend Support/Resistance Help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with broken trend resistance line in a long-term trend.

Medium-term trend: [See XLV medium-term trend chart]
A medium-term uptrend had started on May 15, 2025 at 127.35 and reached 146.76 on October 24, 2025. XLV gained -19.41 points, or -15.24%, in 23 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 146.97 and resistance is at 139.25. A Rising Wage is a triangle formation with a noticeable slant to the upside. It represents the loss of an upside momentum on each successive high and has a bearish bias. The Rising wedge usually marks a reversal in an uptrend. In a downtrend a rising wedge is considered to be a continuation pattern. Use the following link to access a Rising Wedge chart pattern help, or use a Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with Rising Wedge pattern in a medium-term trend.

Weekly Technical Indicators: [See XLV weekly technical indicators chart]
Weekly Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. Oscillators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal. They can act as alerts and should be taken in conjunction with other technical analysis tools. Oscillators can be used to confirm other technical signals. Use the following links to access Lane's Stochastic and Williams' Percentage Range help.

The weekly MACD line is above its signal line since July 3, 2025. This is an indication that the medium-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is relatively high and getting bigger. It indicates that the current medium-term uptrend is strong. Use the following link to access a MACD help.

Short-term trend: [See XLV short-term trend chart]
A short-term uptrend had started on September 25, 2025 at 133.73 and reached 146.76 on October 24, 2025. XLV gained -13.03 points, or -9.74%, in 29 days. The price is now at the 5.60% retracement level.

Daily Technical Indicators: [See XLV daily technical indicators chart]
Daily Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. Use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with overbought daily Lane's Stochastic or strongly overbought daily Williams' Percentage Range. Daily MACD has bearish divergence. Use the following links to access the MACD help, or use the Technical Stock Screener to see the list of stocks with daily MACD bearish divergence. The divergence between price and indicator is considering one of the most important buy/sell stocks trading signal.

During the last week, daily MACD line has moved above its signal line. Such crossover is considered a bullish signal.

Daily Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 62.68
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 3.90
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 87.95
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 82.24
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) 1.74 Bearish
Weekly Oscillators
Description Value Status Divergence Chart
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 68.22
Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) 2.50
Strong Overbought
Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) 82.05
Overbought
Greed/Fear Indicator (GFI) 81.27
Overbought
Moving Average Converg./Diverg. (MACD) -0.61
Trading Signals
Description Value Chart
Upper Bollinger Band 147.65
Monthly Trendline Support 146.97
Daily Stochastic Crossing 146.09
Price 146.03
Weekly Stochastic Crossing 144.94
Parabolic System 143.42
20 Day Moving Average 143.30
50 Day Moving Average 139.57
Monthly Trendline Resistance 139.25
Lower Bollinger Band 138.22
Quarterly Trendline Resistance 136.53
Quarterly Trendline Support 118.40
Sector and Industry
Description Name Rank
Sector
Industry
Daily Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Low 133.73
Low Date 09/25/2025
High 146.76
High Date 10/24/2025
Weekly Trend
Monthly Trend
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 127.96
Low Date 08/07/2025
High 146.76
High Date 10/24/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Rising Wedge
Status Valid
Resistance 139.25
Support 146.97
Low 127.35
Low Date 05/15/2025
High 146.76
High Date 10/24/2025
Quarterly Trend
Yearly Trend
Description Value
Direction Down
Chart Pattern Falling Channel
Status Broken Resistance
Resistance 136.53
Support 118.40
High 159.64
High Date 09/04/2024
Low 127.35
Low Date 05/15/2025
Description Value
Direction Up
Chart Pattern Uptrend
Status
Resistance
Support
Low 21.63
Low Date 03/06/2009
High 159.64
High Date 09/04/2024
Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.