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Weekly Market Overview - 08/28/2020

Weekly Stock Market Overview
(August 29, 2020)

Major US indices

It was an up week for the major U.S. indices. All three major US indices have a strongly overbought monthly, weekly, and daily Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) and strongly overbought daily Lane's Stochastic.

S&P 500 Trend Analysis:

This week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 110.85 points, or 3.26%, and closed at 3508.01. ^GSPC closed positive for the fifth consecutive week. The ^GSPC price is above the Upper Bollinger Band, and it rises above Parabolic SAR.

The S&P 500 monthly uptrend started on March 06, 2009 at 666.79 and reached 3,509.23 on August 28, 2020, making a 426.29% gain in twelve years. The monthly uptrend started on March 23, 2020 at 2,191.86 and reached 3,509.23 on August 28, 2020, making a 60.10% gain in twenty two weeks.

Almost 10% of S&P 500 component stocks have strongly overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic. It is the highest level since January 24, 2020. The number of the S&P 500 component stocks that currently have weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) bearish divergence is at the highest level since February 21, 2020.

The chart on the left below shows the S&P 500 monthly Wave structure that has formed an extended Rising Wedge chart pattern. For comparison, the chart below on the right shows similar pattern formed just prior the February 19 downturn that started at 3,393.52 and reached 2,191.86 on March 23, 2020, making 35.41% drop in three weeks.

^GSPC: S&P 500
Chart: S&P 500 Rising Wedge chart pattern Chart: S&P 500 Rising Wedge chart pattern


The S&P 500 weekly sub-wave has formed the Elliott Wave Impulse Wave pattern. It started on June 15, 2020 at 2,965.66 and reached 3,509.23 on August 28, 2020, making 18.33% gain.

^GSPC: S&P 500
Chart: S&P 500 Elliott Wave Impulse Wave pattern

The Impulse Wave pattern looks completed, and chances of the trend reversal are high.

NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC)

It was the fifth consecutive positive week for the NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC). The ^IXIC price jumped 383.83 points (3.39%). Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought in monthly, weekly, and daily time frames and has bearish divergence in weekly and daily time frames.

The NASDAQ Composite Index quarterly uptrend started on March 23, 2020 at 6,631.42 and reached 11,730.01 on August 27, 2020, making a 76.89% increase in twenty two weeks. Wave has formed the Rising Channel chart pattern, and price is near the resistance level.

NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC)
Chart: NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC) Rising Channel chart pattern

ETF's Currency Shares Alert

This week, the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF) climbed 0.78 points and closed at 101.17. The CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust weekly uptrend started on April 06, 2020 at 93.90 and reached 101.56 on August 18, 2020, making a 8.16% gain in nineteen weeks.

The FXF price is above the Upper Bollinger Band and above the 20 and 50 Day Moving Averages. The price rises above Parabolic SAR. Relative Strength Index and Williams' Percentage Range are strongly overbought in a weekly time frame.

ETF's Commodity Alert

During the past week, iPath Dow Jones AIG-Grains ETN (JJG) jumped 2.32 points, or 5.75%, and closed at 42.66. The iPath Dow Jones AIG-Grains ETN weekly uptrend started on August 07, 2020 at 38.20 and reached 42.66 on August 28, 2020, making a 11.68% gain in fifteen business days.

iPath Dow Jones AIG-Grains ETN (JJG)
Chart: iPath Dow Jones AIG-Grains ETN (JJG)


It was the biggest gain since June 2019. The volume was 14% above average. The price crossed above the 200 Day Moving Average, and it is above the 20 and 50 Day Moving Averages. Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought in a weekly time frame and overbought in a daily time frame. Lane's Stochastic is strongly overbought in a daily time frame and oversold in a monthly time frame.

S&P 500 Sector Rotation

The Technology sector was the strongest sector last week (4.43%), followed by the Financial sector (4.32%). The Utilities sector was the worst performing sector of the week (-0.59%), followed by the Health Care sector (1.10%).

The Information Technology sector is the most overvalued sector, followed by Communication Services, while Electronic Components, Publishing, and Interactive Media & Services are among the most overvalued industries. The Energy sector is the most oversold sector, followed by Utilities, while Oil & Gas Drilling, Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing, and Integrated Oil & Gas are among the most oversold industries.

Currently the most oversold Utilities sector is one of the three Defensive sectors. The defensive stocks tend to maintain their earnings and revenues during market downturns and usually perform better during a market correction or a bear market accompanied by a recession. According to the news, Warren Buffett?s Berkshire recently spent $4 billion to buy the Dominion Energy that belongs to the Utilities sector and Utilities - Diversified Industry.

The highest number of strongly overbought stocks since January
The NASDAQ Composite index has formed the Rising Channel chart pattern, and price is near the resistance level.
Aug 29, 2020
Bear market correction can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing.
Weekly uptrend has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The Rising Wedge in downtrend indicates that higher level downtrend is not over yet.
Apr 17, 2020
Reduce the risk and use some stop losses techniques
S&P 500 Elliot Wave's cycle consists of eight waves; the five-wave motive phase followed by three-wave corrective phase.
Apr 12, 2020
The Best Trading Strategies for the Trending Market
S&P 500 Elliot Waves Analysis: falling channel has a five sub-waves impulse structure.
Mar 22, 2020
S&P 500 Bearish Trend Analysis
What to expect if the S&P breaks the long term rising channel support trendline.
Mar 14, 2020
S&P 500 Rising Wedge Breakdown
The S&P 500 intermediate trend Rising Wedge breakdown caused the biggest weekly loss since October 2008.
Mar 1 , 2020
NASDAQ biggest weekly advance
It was the biggest weekly NASDAQ advance recorded. More than 30% of S&P members are trading at their highest price in the past 52 weeks.
Jan 7 , 2018
Eighth consecutive positive week
It was the eighth consecutive positive week for S&P 500 index. More than 40% of S&P 500 component stocks have overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic. It is the highest level since April 29, 2016.
Nov 5 , 2017
ETF's Currency Shares Alert.
CurrencyShares Swedish Krona Trust (FXS) weekly downtrend reached 116.62 on September 27, making the biggest weekly drop since October 2015.
Sep 24, 2017
Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly uptrend - five-wave structure.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly uptrend has formed a five-wave structure. It started on April 19, 2017 at 20,379.55 and reached 22,419.51 on September 21, 2017.
Sep 24, 2017
Sixth consecutive positive week for the S&P 500.
Almost 56% of S&P 500 component stocks have overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. It is the highest level since December 26, 2014.
Mar 5 , 2017
Third consecutive negative week for the Dow Jones
Almost 40% of S&P 500 component stocks have oversold daily Lane's Stochastic. It is a highest level since November 16, 2012.
Mar 15, 2015
Dow Jones is near 200 Day Moving Average
During the past week, Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 507.65 points or 2.87%, to 17164.95. Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought in a monthly time frame. The Dow Jones price is near 200 Day Moving Average.
Feb 1 , 2015
S&P 500 at highest level since Oct 2007
The major indices and more than a half of S&P 500 members are strongly overbought in daily, weekly, and monthly time frames.
Mar 17, 2013
S&P 500 members Downtrend Resistance Alert
Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and More than 40% of S&P 500 members have the Downtrend Resistance Alert.
Oct 30, 2011
The short-term rally is over
S&P 500 index may break the support around 1100 and move down to the next support area around 1000 - 950.
Sep 5 , 2011
S&P 500 is close to the 50 Day Moving Average
S&P 500 index has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average.
Mar 13, 2011
S&P 500 index wave's structure
S&P 500 medium-term uptrend has a five wave's structure. The fifth sub wave is near completion.
Dec 26, 2010
Monthly W%R is strongly overbought for the first time since October 2007
The S&P 500 technical indicators are pretty close to the beginning of October 2007, just a week prior the beginning of the bear market of 2007-2009.
Oct 17, 2010
More than a half of S&P 500 members are overbought
More than 10% of S&P 500 index members made a new 52-week high, but almost a half of them closed this week below the previous week's close.
Sep 12, 2010
S&P 500 members - Trend Support Alert
Daily and weekly indicators are oversold for all three major US indices. More than 28% of S&P members are oversold, and more than 22% have a Trend Support Alert.
Jul 4 , 2010
S&P 500 members - Downtrend Resistance alert
More than 60 S&P members have the Downtrend Resistance Alert. Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought.
Jun 20, 2010
S&P 500 members - uptrend support alert
More than 30% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert. This alert indicates that stock price is near the monthly uptrend support level.
May 23, 2010
Dow Jones Elliott Wave count
Dow Jones gained 68.03% in 53 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. Fifth wave up is in progress.
Mar 21, 2010
NASDAQ at the highest level since September 2008
NASDAQ medium-term trend has formed a five-wave structure. The fifth wave is in progress now. The price is near the trend resistance line (2331.43).
Mar 5 , 2010
Is Dow Jones going above January high soon?
Dow Jones has advanced above the 50 Day Moving Average. MACD line has moved above its signal line. Both crossovers are considered as bullish signals.
Feb 19, 2010
The Dow Jones has formed a falling channel pattern
The Dow Jones lost 932.06 points, or 8.66%, since January 14. The downtrend has formed a falling channel pattern.
Feb 7 , 2010
The Dow Jones short-term down trend is near the support line
The Dow Jones is near the support line. Daily technical indicators are oversold. Almost 20% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert.
Jan 31, 2010
S&P 500 has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average
S&P MACD line has moved below its signal line; the price has crossed below the 50 Day MA and has closed below the lower Bollinger Band.
Jan 24, 2010

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