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Weekly Market Overview - 14/28/2020

Weekly Stock Market Overview
(March 13, 2020)

S&P 500 index

Major U.S. indices moved lower over the past week. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 261.35 points and closed at 2711.02. The weekly volatility was 519% above average. Lane's Stochastic is already oversold in weekly and daily time frames and has bullish divergence in a daily time frame, but it is still overbought in a monthly time frame.

The chart has formed a daily bearish Downside Tasuki Gap candlestick pattern. This is a rare continuation formation that appears in a strongly downward moving market. The reliability of the Bearish Downside Tasuki Gap pattern is medium.

^GSPC: S&P 500
Downside Tasuki Gap


S&P 500 Cycle Trend Analysis: Rising Channel

The S&P 500 weekly down trend started on February 19, 2020 at 3393.52 and reached 2478.86 on March 12, losing 26.95% in sixteen business days.

^GSPC: S&P 500
Chart: S&P 500 weekly down trend


Officially, a market decline more than 20% is considered a bear market territory. But the yearly trend chart shows that the weekly downtrend only briefly penetrated the channel support trend line and currently stays within the channel boundary. The channel support trend line is not broken yet. That means that the yearly channel is still valid, and from technical point of view, there is no confirmation that market is in a bear territory yet.

^GSPC: S&P 500
Chart: S&P 500 rising channel support trend line

The S&P 500 short term and long term technical indicators are pointing now in two opposite directions. Stochastic is already oversold in weekly and daily time frames and has bullish divergence in a daily time frame, while it is still overbought in a monthly time frame. We have to consider two possible scenarios for the next market move:
  • S&P 500 may retest the channel support trend line again, but eventually it will move up toward the channel resistance line.
  • Price will move closer to the channel support line and eventually breaks down.
Considering how sharp was the weekly downtrend, the breaking channel support scenario has more chances. In this case, as you can see from the chart, the next support level is at 2346.58 that marks 30.85% decline from recent high. This support level is also very close to the yearly wave 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If the bear market unfolds further below this level, there are two major support levels at 2134.72 (or 37.1% price decline) and at 1810.10 (46.66% decline).

ETF's Indices Alert

This week, the iShares MSCI Canada Index (EWC) lost 4.80 points, or 17.58%. The volume was 94% above average. The weekly volatility was 873% above average.

Lane's Stochastic is strongly oversold in a daily time frame and overbought in a monthly time frame ; it has bullish divergence in weekly and daily time frames. The daily Lane's Stochastic main line (K%) crossed above the oversold signal line (D%).

A short-term downtrend had started on March 3, 2020 at 28.56 and reached 20.23 on March 12, 2020. EWC lost 8.33 points, or 29.17%, in 9 days

EWC: iShares MSCI Canada Index
Chart: iShares MSCI Canada Index (EWC)

Sector Rotation

The Technology sector was the strongest sector last week, followed by the Health Care sector. The Energy sector was the worst performing sector of the week (-24.26%), followed by the Utilities sector (-14.07%).

The Healthcare sector is the most overvalued sector, followed by Utilities, while Specialized Health Svcs, Medical Labs & Research, and Health Care Plans are among the most overvalued industries. The Basic Materials sector is the most oversold sector, followed by Services, while Oil & Gas Equipment/Svcs, General Entertainment, and Aluminum are among the most oversold industries.

The highest number of strongly overbought stocks since January
The NASDAQ Composite index has formed the Rising Channel chart pattern, and price is near the resistance level.
Aug 29, 2020
Bear market correction can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing.
Weekly uptrend has formed a Rising Wedge chart pattern. The Rising Wedge in downtrend indicates that higher level downtrend is not over yet.
Apr 17, 2020
Reduce the risk and use some stop losses techniques
S&P 500 Elliot Wave's cycle consists of eight waves; the five-wave motive phase followed by three-wave corrective phase.
Apr 12, 2020
The Best Trading Strategies for the Trending Market
S&P 500 Elliot Waves Analysis: falling channel has a five sub-waves impulse structure.
Mar 22, 2020
S&P 500 Bearish Trend Analysis
What to expect if the S&P breaks the long term rising channel support trendline.
Mar 14, 2020
S&P 500 Rising Wedge Breakdown
The S&P 500 intermediate trend Rising Wedge breakdown caused the biggest weekly loss since October 2008.
Mar 1 , 2020
NASDAQ biggest weekly advance
It was the biggest weekly NASDAQ advance recorded. More than 30% of S&P members are trading at their highest price in the past 52 weeks.
Jan 7 , 2018
Eighth consecutive positive week
It was the eighth consecutive positive week for S&P 500 index. More than 40% of S&P 500 component stocks have overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic. It is the highest level since April 29, 2016.
Nov 5 , 2017
ETF's Currency Shares Alert.
CurrencyShares Swedish Krona Trust (FXS) weekly downtrend reached 116.62 on September 27, making the biggest weekly drop since October 2015.
Sep 24, 2017
Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly uptrend - five-wave structure.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly uptrend has formed a five-wave structure. It started on April 19, 2017 at 20,379.55 and reached 22,419.51 on September 21, 2017.
Sep 24, 2017
Sixth consecutive positive week for the S&P 500.
Almost 56% of S&P 500 component stocks have overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. It is the highest level since December 26, 2014.
Mar 5 , 2017
Third consecutive negative week for the Dow Jones
Almost 40% of S&P 500 component stocks have oversold daily Lane's Stochastic. It is a highest level since November 16, 2012.
Mar 15, 2015
Dow Jones is near 200 Day Moving Average
During the past week, Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 507.65 points or 2.87%, to 17164.95. Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought in a monthly time frame. The Dow Jones price is near 200 Day Moving Average.
Feb 1 , 2015
S&P 500 at highest level since Oct 2007
The major indices and more than a half of S&P 500 members are strongly overbought in daily, weekly, and monthly time frames.
Mar 17, 2013
S&P 500 members Downtrend Resistance Alert
Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and More than 40% of S&P 500 members have the Downtrend Resistance Alert.
Oct 30, 2011
The short-term rally is over
S&P 500 index may break the support around 1100 and move down to the next support area around 1000 - 950.
Sep 5 , 2011
S&P 500 is close to the 50 Day Moving Average
S&P 500 index has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average.
Mar 13, 2011
S&P 500 index wave's structure
S&P 500 medium-term uptrend has a five wave's structure. The fifth sub wave is near completion.
Dec 26, 2010
Monthly W%R is strongly overbought for the first time since October 2007
The S&P 500 technical indicators are pretty close to the beginning of October 2007, just a week prior the beginning of the bear market of 2007-2009.
Oct 17, 2010
More than a half of S&P 500 members are overbought
More than 10% of S&P 500 index members made a new 52-week high, but almost a half of them closed this week below the previous week's close.
Sep 12, 2010
S&P 500 members - Trend Support Alert
Daily and weekly indicators are oversold for all three major US indices. More than 28% of S&P members are oversold, and more than 22% have a Trend Support Alert.
Jul 4 , 2010
S&P 500 members - Downtrend Resistance alert
More than 60 S&P members have the Downtrend Resistance Alert. Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought.
Jun 20, 2010
S&P 500 members - uptrend support alert
More than 30% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert. This alert indicates that stock price is near the monthly uptrend support level.
May 23, 2010
Dow Jones Elliott Wave count
Dow Jones gained 68.03% in 53 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. Fifth wave up is in progress.
Mar 21, 2010
NASDAQ at the highest level since September 2008
NASDAQ medium-term trend has formed a five-wave structure. The fifth wave is in progress now. The price is near the trend resistance line (2331.43).
Mar 5 , 2010
Is Dow Jones going above January high soon?
Dow Jones has advanced above the 50 Day Moving Average. MACD line has moved above its signal line. Both crossovers are considered as bullish signals.
Feb 19, 2010
The Dow Jones has formed a falling channel pattern
The Dow Jones lost 932.06 points, or 8.66%, since January 14. The downtrend has formed a falling channel pattern.
Feb 7 , 2010
The Dow Jones short-term down trend is near the support line
The Dow Jones is near the support line. Daily technical indicators are oversold. Almost 20% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert.
Jan 31, 2010
S&P 500 has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average
S&P MACD line has moved below its signal line; the price has crossed below the 50 Day MA and has closed below the lower Bollinger Band.
Jan 24, 2010

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Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.

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