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Stock Market Trend Analysis Newsletter.

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 9/5/2011

It was a mixed week for the major markets. During the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -44.28 points or -0.39%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped -2.83 points or -0.24%, while the NASDAQ Composite climbed 0.48 points or 0.02%.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^GSPC) closed at 1173.97 on Friday, September 02, 2011. It was trading at the average weekly trading volume. Read More ...

S&P 500 index long-term downtrend is forming a three wave?s structure (See Figure 1). The first wave down (A) had started on October 11, 2007 at 1576.09 and lost 909.30 points, or 57.69%, in 73 weeks and reached 666.79 on March 6, 2009. The second wave (B) gained 703.79 points, or more than 105%, in 26 month and reached 1370.58 on May 2, 2011. Wave B made a lower high; it is a bearish signal. The third wave down (C) is in progress now.
S&P 500 long-term trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Figure 1

The recent rally had started on August 9th, 2011 at 1101.54 and reached 1,230.71 on August 31st, 2011. It is a sub wave of a long-term C wave and it has a three wave?s structure as well (See Figure 3). Several technical indicators suggest that it was a bearish rally:
  • Usually when the price moves below 200 day Moving Average, the next up wave at least retests the 200 day MA as a new resistance level. The Bullish rally usually breaks this resistance level and the price moves above the 200 day MA level. The current rally is weak and it was not even able to reach the 200 day MA.
  • Daily Lane's Stochastic %D line is about to crossover with %k line. It is usually considered as a sell signal.
  • Sub wave C?s high is only 1.8% higher than sub wave A?s high, while daily Lane's Stochastic has raised substantially and has moved into an overbought area. This divergence is considered as a bearish signal.
  • The rally could not reach the Upper Bollinger Band, and this is a bearish indicator.
All the above signals may indicate that the rally might be over, and a new sub wave down has started. S&P 500 index may break the support around 1100 and move down to the next support area around 1000 - 950.
S&P 500 medium-term trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System

Figure 2


Presented by www.thegreedytrader.com Research Group.

Eighth consecutive positive week
It was the eighth consecutive positive week for S&P 500 index. More than 40% of S&P 500 component stocks have overbought weekly Lane's Stochastic. It is the highest level since April 29, 2016.
Nov 5 , 2017
ETF's Currency Shares Alert.
CurrencyShares Swedish Krona Trust (FXS) weekly downtrend reached 116.62 on September 27, making the biggest weekly drop since October 2015.
Sep 24, 2017
Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly uptrend - five-wave structure.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly uptrend has formed a five-wave structure. It started on April 19, 2017 at 20,379.55 and reached 22,419.51 on September 21, 2017.
Sep 24, 2017
Sixth consecutive positive week for the S&P 500.
Almost 56% of S&P 500 component stocks have overbought weekly Williams' Percentage Range. It is the highest level since December 26, 2014.
Mar 5 , 2017
Third consecutive negative week for the Dow Jones
Almost 40% of S&P 500 component stocks have oversold daily Lane's Stochastic. It is a highest level since November 16, 2012.
Mar 15, 2015
Dow Jones is near 200 Day Moving Average
During the past week, Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 507.65 points or 2.87%, to 17164.95. Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought in a monthly time frame. The Dow Jones price is near 200 Day Moving Average.
Feb 1 , 2015
S&P 500 at highest level since Oct 2007
The major indices and more than a half of S&P 500 members are strongly overbought in daily, weekly, and monthly time frames.
Mar 17, 2013
S&P 500 members Downtrend Resistance Alert
Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and More than 40% of S&P 500 members have the Downtrend Resistance Alert.
Oct 30, 2011
The short-term rally is over
S&P 500 index may break the support around 1100 and move down to the next support area around 1000 - 950.
Sep 5 , 2011
S&P 500 is close to the 50 Day Moving Average
S&P 500 index has fallen below the Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal). Price is close to the 50 Day Moving Average.
Mar 13, 2011
S&P 500 index wave's structure
S&P 500 medium-term uptrend has a five wave's structure. The fifth sub wave is near completion.
Dec 26, 2010
Monthly W%R is strongly overbought for the first time since October 2007
The S&P 500 technical indicators are pretty close to the beginning of October 2007, just a week prior the beginning of the bear market of 2007-2009.
Oct 17, 2010
More than a half of S&P 500 members are overbought
More than 10% of S&P 500 index members made a new 52-week high, but almost a half of them closed this week below the previous week's close.
Sep 12, 2010
S&P 500 members - Trend Support Alert
Daily and weekly indicators are oversold for all three major US indices. More than 28% of S&P members are oversold, and more than 22% have a Trend Support Alert.
Jul 4 , 2010
S&P 500 members - Downtrend Resistance alert
More than 60 S&P members have the Downtrend Resistance Alert. Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought.
Jun 20, 2010
S&P 500 members - uptrend support alert
More than 30% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert. This alert indicates that stock price is near the monthly uptrend support level.
May 23, 2010
Dow Jones Elliott Wave count
Dow Jones gained 68.03% in 53 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. Fifth wave up is in progress.
Mar 21, 2010
NASDAQ at the highest level since September 2008
NASDAQ medium-term trend has formed a five-wave structure. The fifth wave is in progress now. The price is near the trend resistance line (2331.43).
Mar 5 , 2010
Is Dow Jones going above January high soon?
Dow Jones has advanced above the 50 Day Moving Average. MACD line has moved above its signal line. Both crossovers are considered as bullish signals.
Feb 19, 2010
The Dow Jones has formed a falling channel pattern
The Dow Jones lost 932.06 points, or 8.66%, since January 14. The downtrend has formed a falling channel pattern.
Feb 7 , 2010
The Dow Jones short-term down trend is near the support line
The Dow Jones is near the support line. Daily technical indicators are oversold. Almost 20% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert.
Jan 31, 2010
S&P 500 has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average
S&P MACD line has moved below its signal line; the price has crossed below the 50 Day MA and has closed below the lower Bollinger Band.
Jan 24, 2010
The Christmas rally has pushed the stocks ahead
The trend following indicators have turned bullish, while almost 20% of S&P 500 members are overbought.
Dec 25, 2009
Technical indicators caused a sharp stock market sell off
Strong resistance caused a sharp stock market sell off. The S&P 500 index has lost 3.3% in two days.
Sep 27, 2009
S&P 500 is forming a rising wedge pattern
S&P 500 is forming a rising wedge chart pattern. The next up leg could reach the resistance around 1075 in October.
Sep 6 , 2009
All three major US indices are overbought
109 out of S&P 500 members are overbought, 51 stocks have daily MACD bearish divergence.
Jul 25, 2009
S&P 500 - head and shoulders pattern
The S&P 500 has an Uptrend Exhaustion alert. Chart has formed the head and shoulders pattern. Price is near the neckline.
Jul 12, 2009
S&P 500 - Uptrend Exhaustion alert
The S&P 500 index has an Uptrend Exhaustion alert. The next resistance level is near 1044. The support is near 470.
Jun 7 , 2009
S&P 500 - downtrend resistance alert
The S&P 500 index has a downtrend resistance alert. The weekly ABC zigzag pattern is almost completed. Resistance is near 944.
May 10, 2009

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