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Stock Market Trend Analysis Newsletter.

The Stock Market Week - 6/27/2008
All the major US indices were negative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the weakest among the major market indices. It closed on Friday at the lowest level since September 7, 2006. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 496.18 points, or 4.19%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 39.55 points, or 3.00%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 90.46 points, or 3.76%.

The Energy sector was the strongest sector last week followed by the Health Care sector. The Financial sector was the worst performing sector of the week followed by the Industrial sector.

The Conglomerates and Financial are the most oversold sectors, while Regional-Southeast Banks, Sporting Goods, Housewares & Accessories, and Appliances are among the most oversold industries.

The Basic Materials and Utilities are the most overvalued sectors, while Beverages-Brewers, Gas Utilities, Metals Fabrication, and Oil & Gas Drilling/Explore are among the most overvalued industries.

Nasdaq Trend Analysis
In our previous QQQQ analysis on June 20th, we suggested that "the weekly Lane's Stochastic falls below 80% level, and %K line falls below %D. Both signs are usually considered as a sell signal". It was a negative week for the QQQQ. The QQQQ lost 3.73% for the week.

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis:
Our long-term outlook has not changed. We consider two possible scenarios:

Scenario 1.
The long-term uptrend (10/08/2002 - 10/31/2007) is over, and a new long-term downtrend started on 10/31/2007. The sub wave 2 (0/31/2007 - present) is currently in progress and almost completed. The sub wave 3 down should start soon and break the long-term support trend line around 43ᇀ, and then it'll go lower than the recent low of 41.05 and move down to about 35 in the late fall.

Scenario 2.
The long-term uptrend that started on 10/08/2002 is still in progress, with sub wave 5 currently in progress. The wave 5 is usually tricky. It might be truncated and form a double top pattern or not even reach the previous high - 55.07.

Which scenario we are going to see may depend on how successful the FED's rate cut would be. The FED's market regulation supposed to weaken the upcoming recession, but FED should not use their power to turn the recession into a new bull market. If FED overdoes the rate cut, we may see the scenario 2. With this scenario, by the end of the wave 5 FED will not have enough room for a new rate cut, and the next long-term downtrend would be even more severe.

"This will probably not prove to be the final bottom" said billionaire George Soros, referring to the rally in stocks after JPMorgan Chase agreed to buy Bear Stearns on March 17. He added that the rebound might last six weeks to three months as the US moves closer to a recession.
QQQQ - Long-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
QQQQ Short-term technical analysis:
Weekly rising channel (March 17 ? June 5) is broken. The new falling channel is forming, and the price is near the channel support. Daily William's Percentage Range (W%R) and Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) are oversold. Broad market is oversold on daily and weekly bases. 133 members of Standard & Poor's 500 Index are oversold, while only 4 overbought. The sharp decline might pause soon, and QQQQ may move up toward the weekly falling channel resistance. The next QQQQ long-term support is near 44.
QQQQ - Short-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Presented by www.thegreedytrader.com Research Group.
S&P 500 members - Trend Support Alert
Daily and weekly indicators are oversold for all three major US indices. More than 28% of S&P members are oversold, and more than 22% have a Trend Support Alert.
Jul 4 , 2010
S&P 500 members - Downtrend Resistance alert
More than 60 S&P members have the Downtrend Resistance Alert. Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are strongly overbought.
Jun 20, 2010
S&P 500 members - uptrend support alert
More than 30% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert. This alert indicates that stock price is near the monthly uptrend support level.
May 23, 2010
Dow Jones Elliott Wave count
Dow Jones gained 68.03% in 53 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. Fifth wave up is in progress.
Mar 21, 2010
NASDAQ at the highest level since September 2008
NASDAQ medium-term trend has formed a five-wave structure. The fifth wave is in progress now. The price is near the trend resistance line (2331.43).
Mar 5 , 2010
Is Dow Jones going above January high soon?
Dow Jones has advanced above the 50 Day Moving Average. MACD line has moved above its signal line. Both crossovers are considered as bullish signals.
Feb 19, 2010
The Dow Jones has formed a falling channel pattern
The Dow Jones lost 932.06 points, or 8.66%, since January 14. The downtrend has formed a falling channel pattern.
Feb 7 , 2010
The Dow Jones short-term down trend is near the support line
The Dow Jones is near the support line. Daily technical indicators are oversold. Almost 20% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert.
Jan 31, 2010
S&P 500 has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average
S&P MACD line has moved below its signal line; the price has crossed below the 50 Day MA and has closed below the lower Bollinger Band.
Jan 24, 2010
The Christmas rally has pushed the stocks ahead
The trend following indicators have turned bullish, while almost 20% of S&P 500 members are overbought.
Dec 25, 2009
Technical indicators caused a sharp stock market sell off
Strong resistance caused a sharp stock market sell off. The S&P 500 index has lost 3.3% in two days.
Sep 27, 2009
S&P 500 is forming a rising wedge pattern
S&P 500 is forming a rising wedge chart pattern. The next up leg could reach the resistance around 1075 in October.
Sep 6 , 2009
All three major US indices are overbought
109 out of S&P 500 members are overbought, 51 stocks have daily MACD bearish divergence.
Jul 25, 2009
S&P 500 - head and shoulders pattern
The S&P 500 has an Uptrend Exhaustion alert. Chart has formed the head and shoulders pattern. Price is near the neckline.
Jul 12, 2009
S&P 500 - Uptrend Exhaustion alert
The S&P 500 index has an Uptrend Exhaustion alert. The next resistance level is near 1044. The support is near 470.
Jun 7 , 2009
S&P 500 - downtrend resistance alert
The S&P 500 index has a downtrend resistance alert. The weekly ABC zigzag pattern is almost completed. Resistance is near 944.
May 10, 2009
The upside potential is limited
The S&P 500 upside potential is limited and chances are high that price will turn down soon. The support is near 805.
May 3 , 2009
S&P 500 chart has formed the broadening wedge
S&P 500 chart has formed the broadening descending wedge. The uptrend may pause for a while to reset technical indicators.
Mar 29, 2009
S&P 500 chart wave analysis
S&P 500 chart wave analysis and technical indicators suggest that the downtrend might be close to completion with the target around 650.
Feb 22, 2009
S&P 500 is forming a triangle pattern
Since mid October the S&P 500 is forming a horizontal expanding triangle pattern. The support is near 600, and resistance around 959
Jan 19, 2009
S&P 500 resistance is near 965
S&P 500 resistance is near 965 now and the support is near 738. S&P may turn down to retest the support line once more.
Nov 30, 2008
S&P 500 technical indicators have bullish divergence
S&P 500 technical indicators have bullish divergence. It is usually considered as an indicator that bears are losing power.
Nov 14, 2008
Major indices have formed a triangle chart pattern
All three major indices have formed a triangle pattern. Usually, in a mature trend a it is considered as a reversal pattern.
Oct 12, 2008
Bear market technical indicators
According to the technical indicators, the sharp market down wave might be close to completion.
Oct 12, 2008
Bear market statistics
Average length of a bear market - 18.5 months (current - 12). Average bear market decline - 36% (current - 28%).
Oct 5 , 2008
Major indices posted the biggest gains since 2002
The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have posted the biggest gains since October 11, 2002 in two consecutive trading sessions.
Sep 19, 2008
Dow - head and shoulders pattern
Dow Jones long-term chart has formed a head and shoulders pattern. After retesting the neckline Dow has resumed the long-term downtrend.
Sep 7 , 2008
Nasdaq is forming a triangle chart pattern
Nasdaq is forming a triangle chart pattern. It usually represents an area of indecision, where the direction of the movement is questioned.
Aug 17, 2008
S&P 500 has formed a Bearish Advance Block pattern
The down trend might not be completed yet, and it may resume soon. On Friday, S&P 500 Index has formed a Bearish Advance Block candlestick pattern.
Jul 20, 2008
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Warning: TheGreedyTrader.com presents weekly analysis. Technical indicators and trend parameters are calculated for the close of business day indicated on the top right corner of the screen.
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